Rasmussen (4/10, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 39%
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 52%Jim Neal (D): 37%
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51%
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This campaign has yet to heat up, but considering that Neal and Hagan have no statewide profile (yet), this isn’t a bad place to start.
Do we really suspect that the openly gay Neal can really do better that Liddy? I am gay, but I’m also realistic. When the United States Senate finally elects an openly gay member, I seriously doubt that he/she will be from the former Confederacy. Just my take however.
The last poll I saw for Maine showed this. I believe the pollster was GOP (McLaughlin & Associates) though:
Tom Allen (D): 31%
Susan Collins (R-inc): 54%
(MoE: ±4.9%)
A 23 point deficit versus a 13 point deficit for Hagen. If memory serves, the Dems are no closer than 13 in OREGON as well.
This is the sleeper of the cycle folks!! Pay attention to this one. Forget Neal. NC isn’t ready for that. I’m a gay realist in SC BTW. I live 30 miles from the SC/NC border. Dole’s profile is very low form my perspective, he has NOT solidified herself in NC politics at all, IMO.
Hagen is a credible challenger, and I think it helps to have a woman running when the incumbent is a women as well.
Hagen is a strong candidate, IMO. She has won from a GOP city (Greensboro).
In October Dole was leading Easley by 8 points. Considering half the state knows nothing about Hagen, and Easley has been Governor for 7 years, that is pretty remarkable. It also shows the weakness of Dole.
Also there is this….
There is blood in the water folks, can you smell it….
Is this going to be the 52-48 race that we WIN or the 48-52 race that we LOSE because Dems didn’t take it seriously enough, soon enough.
the 9 most competitive races are pretty easy to agree on (VA, CO, NM, LA, MN, OR, ME, AK, NH), but the 10th is very much in doubt.
TX because of it’s size and republicans is not it. KY because of McConnell’s $ and profile is probably not it. i think it’s either this one or OK because they are not that big or expensive and the incumbents are not that visible or effective.
go team D!
That SHOULD have been TOM Allen in ME.
Republicans have mostly won close races in North Carolina of late, taking 8 of the last 10 US Senate elections but IIRC never quite hitting 55% and winning a lot of 52-48 and 53-47 elections.
The last Democratic U.S. Senator to win re-election was Sam Ervin in 1968. Terry Sanford defeated Jim Broyhill in 1986 and, of course, John Edwards defeated Lauch Faircloth in 1998. Each held a single term.
What this says to me, is that it is closer than it looks but not a toss-up by any means.
solid numbers – you’ve convinced me. NC is #10. and another factor is that obama will probably do better in NC than in OK.
Musgrove has proven he can win statewide. He’s also proven he can lose statewide – more recently. The same is also true of Larry Larocco, who lost about 60-40 to Jim Risch for Lt Guv in ’06.
will African-Americans in North Carolina, even ones voting for Obama, vote for a homosexual man?
I dunno.
Had Stumbo or Luallen gotten into Kentucky it would have been there, but it’s not. Noriega is awesome, but it costs over a million dollars just to be on the air for a week in Texas, and that’s money he just does not have, but he may do very well regardless, his new campaign team seems to be running a much better and tighter ship, but they may be a bit late. Rice is great and Inhoffe is a jerk, but Rice just may be too much of a novice to pull it off. Kleeb is a case of a candidate who would win if his opponent was not who it was.
Hagen’s fundraising has exceeded expectations and has been very active on the campaign trail, so I am reading, and Liddy Dole is . . . who again? Bob’s wife?
I’ll give NC the #10 spot. You reading this Chris Cillizza?
I would think MS-B would be number 10. Democrats there have someone who has proven that he can win statewide.
Otherwise I think it’s a tossup between NC and Nebraska. Kleeb is fundraising as fast as Johanns and as Jon Singer at MyDD proved he is very much electable:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007…
I think Neal will hit a glass ceiling if he is the nominee.
People have spoken about a couple prospects for the first openly gay senator recently. Tammy Baldwin from Wisconsin and Barney Frank from Massachussets are two names that have been tossed around.
As another gay person I associate myself with Venslor’s comment. The lack of a first-tier candidate both here and in KY largely destroys the hope of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Clearly the NC electorate is unenthusiastic about such a non-functional senator such as Dole, but in a red state a candidate with high name recognition and solid funding is necessary. One has to wonder why with such a terrific opportunity, top-name candidates in NC and KY failed to materialize.
Further not even the two criteria cited above guarantee success. A blue, antiwar state like ME might be thought of as a prime venue for a Dem takeover. Sadly, not so. Good funding for a well-known candidate such as Mike Allen is apparently not proving sufficient reason for Maineiacs to overcome their love affair with Collins. Polling has hardly changed over the past year despite ME’s antiwar attitude.
However, being gay, I hope that he makes the race competitive and goes out with a bang. It’s kinda like a former Jesse Jackson supporter once told me-it’s not about him winning so much as it is paving the way for the next GLBT American who will.
I think he has is that he recently came out after having been married with kids. That doesn’t play well here, and I’m in New York.
Having said that, I still like the guy and I’m not willing to not give him a chance because of something I don’t believe is an issue, maybe North Carolina will surprise us, who knows?
Dole is 72 now, and has a husband with unlimited Viagra. Will she have the stamina to hit the campaign trail vigorously, if things get tight in Sept./Oct?
As far as OK vs. NC, consider …
* Dems are FAR stronger in NC than OK.
* Bush won NC with 56% and OK with 67% in 2004
* Dole won in 2002 with 54% and Inhofe with 57% the same year. Inhofe has won three times with at least 55%.
* Rice has been in the state senate two years (I think)and Hagen has been a state senator 10 years.
Hopefully, they BOTH win, but NC is a stronger shot on paper.